Those states remain close enough that Mr. Trump remains competitive. With one exception: three eye-opening state polls from Fox News. Mr. Cornyn’s advantage is powered almost entirely by rural voters: he’s trailing significantly among those who live in cities and has just a two-point advantage with suburbanites, 17 percent of whom said they were still undecided. And that’s even before considering the possibility that it’s an outlier, like the ABC/Washington Post poll in Minnesota. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin. A significant danger looming for Texas Republicans is that Mr. Trump’s hard-line immigration policies are increasingly out of step with where the state is today, and where it is heading. But if he’s up by only three points in the state, as today’s polls might suggest, maybe Pennsylvania — where there has been less polling recently — might be the better option for Mr. Biden to find his 270th electoral vote. Tomorrow, we expect another poll of Wisconsin from ABC News/Washington Post. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters before boarding his plane in Florida on Tuesday. Hispanic voters in Texas favor Mr. Biden by 25 points, 57 percent to 32 percent. National polls still raise some questions. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks to reporters before boarding his plane in Florida on Tuesday. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. No Democratic presidential candidate has earned that much support with white voters in the past five decades. That's mostly unchanged from last month in the survey taken just before the party conventions began, a reflection of how remarkably consistent this race has been in national polling. A word of caution: Quinnipiac has leaned quite a bit to the left in this cycle; I recommend nudging these to the right a few points in your head before taking them to the bank. What the results don’t have in common. Where no polling is available, the 2016 margin is used. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters from Sept. 16 to Sept. 22. Trump still hanging on in Arizona? But if you took all the polls together Thursday, you wound up in about the same spot you started at the beginning of the day, though Fox News did try to shake things up at the very end. Think twice about that Biden lead in North Carolina Today there was a Suffolk University poll showing Mr. Biden up by four points in North Carolina, which would be a strong showing in a state where our averages suggest a dead heat.
That’s certainly plausible, especially since Mr. Biden has tended to make his largest gains among white voters, who are disproportionately overrepresented in the battleground states, while struggling to match Mrs. Clinton’s numbers among nonwhite voters. More often than not, confusion follows. Ohio isn’t exactly like those states, but the northwestern part of the state is somewhat similar to the rest of the Farm Belt, and the Trump campaign has aired plenty of advertisements in the state. Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue both face challenging elections in November. That’s why we built this page. (It did make a difference for some socially awkward or possibly embarrassing questions, like those about people’s personal finances or attitudes about discrimination.). There are other possible differences, like the effect of campaign ad spending. Notably, like in August's survey, Biden is again recording record support with white voters for a Democratic presidential candidate. Today’s polls kept them in play. But there’s really just no serious evidence to support the idea that these voters exist in meaningful numbers, and there was no such evidence in 2016, either.
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